A geopolitical reading of the dimensions of the Gulf crisis and its current developments

The Gulf crisis erupted in June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt announced the severing of diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and aligning with Iran. However, this crisis transcended the diplomatic dimension to reveal a deeper geopolitical struggle for regional influence and redrawn the balance of power in the Arabian Gulf. The crisis tested Qatar's strategic position and the rivalry between Gulf powers, in addition to opening the way for Iran to strengthen its presence in the region.

First: Qatar's Strategic Location in the Arabian Gulf and its Role as an Influential Regional Center

1. Geographical Location:

• Qatar is a small peninsula in the heart of the Arabian Gulf, overlooking vital shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important maritime passage for oil and gas transportation.

• Its only land border is with Saudi Arabia, making its relationship with Riyadh a crucial factor in its national security.

2. Economic Power:

• Qatar ranks third in the world in natural gas reserves (the North Field shared with Iran)¹.

• Liquefied natural gas exports have made it a major energy supplier to Asian and European markets, strengthening its position as a global economic player.

3. Soft Power:

• Al Jazeera, as an influential media outlet, has helped Doha establish its image as a powerful regional player.

• Qatar has played mediation roles in regional conflicts such as those in Lebanon and Sudan, giving it a role that extends beyond its geographical scope.

Second: The Regional Rivalry between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE and Its Impact on American Interests

1. Roots of the Dispute:

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE seek to consolidate their leadership of the Arab and Gulf order, while Qatar has pursued a more independent foreign policy.

• Qatar's support for political Islam (especially the Muslim Brotherhood)² has been a major point of contention with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

2. Security Implications:

• The presence of the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest in the region, made the United States a pivotal player in managing the crisis.

• The Gulf rift weakened the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a security and economic framework, harming US interests in confronting Iran.

3. American Interests:

• Washington relies on Gulf stability to secure global energy supplies.

• The crisis placed the US administration among its main allies, forcing it to play the role of mediator to avoid losing any party.

Third: Iran's Role in the Crisis, Its Alliance with Qatar, and Its Implications for the Region

1. Iranian-Qatari Rapprochement:

• After the blockade, Iran opened its airspace and ports to Qatar and supplied it with food supplies, strengthening cooperation between the two parties.

• Joint management of the North/South Pars gas field increased the interconnectedness of economic interests.

2. Geopolitical Implications:

• The crisis provided Tehran with an opportunity to break some of its regional isolation.

• It strengthened its position as an influential player in the Gulf by building a tactical alliance with Doha.

3. Gulf-US Concerns:

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE viewed the Qatari-Iranian rapprochement as a direct threat to their security.

• The United States feared that the continuation of the crisis would push Qatar toward the Iran-Turkey axis, which could weaken its military and political influence in the region.

The Gulf crisis demonstrates that the strategic location of a small state like Qatar can transform it into a prominent regional player, especially when it possesses strong economic and media tools. The crisis also reveals the leadership struggle among the major Gulf powers and the fragility of the regional order amid political differences. In contrast, Iran has exploited the crisis to enhance its influence, while the United States has faced the challenge of managing conflicting alliances.

Although the Al-Ula Agreement (January 2021) formally ended the crisis, the roots of the dispute remain, making the geopolitical balance in the Gulf vulnerable to change with any new developments.

Fourth: Contemporary Events: Qatar's Role in the "Al-Aqsa Flood" and the Repercussions of the Targeting

1. Qatar's Role in Receiving Hamas Leaders and Negotiating a Ceasefire and Prisoner Exchange

• Several sources indicate that Qatar has re-engaged as a mediator in negotiations with Hamas, in cooperation with Egypt, to explore plans for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange.

• The Hamas negotiating team was also briefed on an American plan that included several provisions for a ceasefire, the return of prisoners, and the initiation of political steps. Qatar played a mediating role with Egypt in conveying the plan.

• There are also reports that the presence of Hamas leaders in Doha was used for negotiations; however, some sources indicate that the negotiating team left Doha after the US objected to some of the conditions of its presence.

2. Iran's Targeting of the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and How to Confront the Attack

• On June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile attack on the US Al Udeid base in Qatar, in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

• Qatar announced that its air defenses intercepted the missiles and that there were no significant casualties or damage. The base was either evacuated or precautionary measures were taken before the attack.

• Iran, for its part, justified the attack as a proportionate response (based on the number of missiles compared to the number of US bombs), and that Iran did not intend to target Qatar itself, but rather the US base on its territory.

3. Israel's Targeting of Qatar and Its Repercussions

• Israeli strikes targeted what were alleged to be Hamas leadership sites in Doha, sparking diplomatic tensions, especially with Qatar, which hosts these leaders and plays the role of mediator.

• One of the political repercussions of these strikes is the strained relationship between Israel and Qatar, and international pressure demanding that the Gulf state's sovereignty be guaranteed and that it not be targeted without prior coordination or warning. The situation also affected Israel's image regionally and internationally.

4. Trump's Recent Statements and Washington's Position on Targeting Doha

• Israel reportedly pledged not to target Qatar again, as part of the peace plan supported by Trump to stop the war in Gaza, amid Qatar's mediation role.

• Media outlets also reported that Trump described the targeting of Doha as tantamount to targeting Washington, in the context of the deep tensions that followed the Israeli strike.

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Fifth: The Entry of a Squadron of US Aircraft into Al Udeid Air Base and Its Implications

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In the context of the mutual escalation between the United States and Iran, recent reports have indicated that a squadron of US aircraft has entered Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as part of a strategic military buildup to support US operations and regional deterrence. This move represents a significant development in the military framework of Washington's strategy in the Gulf and carries multiple implications and dimensions.

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A. Reasons for the Squadron's Entry into Al Udeid Air Base

1. Enhancing Air Readiness and Deterrence

US intervention in the Iran-Israel conflict requires the deployment of fighter and support aircraft in close proximity to ensure a rapid response to any threat or confrontation.

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2. Compensating for a Previous Withdrawal or Redeployment

In the days preceding the Iranian attack on the base, it was reported that the United States had moved approximately 40 aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base to other bases or facilitated their evacuation as a precautionary measure.

The return of the air squadron is an attempt to restore the military balance after this temporary withdrawal.

3. Reaffirming the Commitment and Continuity of the US Military Presence in the Gulf

The squadron's entry sends a political and military message that the United States continues to support its presence in the heart of the region, despite the tensions and risks.

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B. Implications of Military Involvement on the Regional Stage

1. Escalation of Tensions with Iran

Any US military action within such a sensitive region is interpreted in Tehran as an escalation and could serve as a pretext for new US responses or counterattacks.

2. Pressure on Qatari Sovereignty

Although the base is located within Qatari territory under agreements with the United States, the return of a military air squadron undermines Qatar's sovereign image and raises questions about the limits of sovereignty in crisis situations.

3. Expected Reactions from the Gulf States and Surrounding Countries

Other Gulf States may view this US military expansion as interference in their domestic arena, an incentive to engage in an arms race, or a strengthening of their defense capabilities.

It could also lead to realignments or adjustments in the positions of countries regarding the US-Iran conflict.

4. Operational Risks and Logistical Challenges

• The presence of aircraft at the base could expose them to direct targeting by Iran or its proxy militias.

• The need for significant logistical support (fuel, maintenance, base security) amidst threats and tense conditions.

• Difficulty coordinating with Qatari air defenses and ensuring that US aircraft are not considered targets by national air defense or by allies.

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C. Implementation Problems and Precautions Taken

1. Evacuation and Withdrawal of Some Aircraft

Prior to the Iranian attacks, aircraft were evacuated from the runway or moved to shelters or alternative bases to minimize potential losses.

2. Activation of Joint Qatari and US Air Defenses

Air defense systems, including Patriot missiles, were activated to repel any potential missile attack. Several reports indicated that the base's defense personnel had only seconds to respond before the missiles arrived.

It was also reported that 44 US soldiers remained at the base to coordinate defenses and enable immediate protection.

3. Advance Notifications and Warnings

According to some sources, the United States and Qatar were notified hours in advance of the anticipated Iranian attack, allowing for some preemptive measures, such as closing airspace or evacuating non-essential aircraft.

However, these warnings are often inaccurate or insufficient to prepare all aircraft for departure or complete evasion.

4. Possible Damage to Critical Infrastructure

Among the reported damages, a geodesic dome used by the Americans for secure communications at the base was hit by Iranian missiles.

Some satellite images also showed signs of superficial damage to buildings or signs of burning near equipment, although the overall impact was limited.