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The Future of Global Politics Amid Energy, Technology, and Potential Wars

Abstract

This research explores the transformation of global politics shaped by complex interactions between the energy transition, technological advancement (especially artificial intelligence and large-scale programming), and emerging geopolitical tensions or regional wars. It also discusses demographic changes and the rising discourse around “population decline” or alleged “population reduction theories,” linking these to post-COVID-19 policies and vaccine controversies. Additionally, it examines digital privacy risks, political targeting, election manipulation, and cyber-governance challenges, concluding with future scenarios and policy recommendations.

1. Energy and the Global Power Shift

1.1 Characteristics and Trends

  • The global shift toward renewable energy is reshaping dependency networks—from concentrated fossil fuel exports to diversified supply chains of rare minerals, batteries, and electric grids.

  • This transition creates both opportunities and disruptions. Many countries still rely on fossil fuels for economic or security reasons, while others push to eliminate public financing for oil and gas projects.

1.2 Implications for Sovereignty and Global Influence

  • States rich in lithium and rare earth elements are gaining strategic leverage.

  • Electrical grids, undersea cables, and energy chokepoints have become new arenas of strategic control.

  • Global oil supply volatility—caused by wars, sanctions, and OPEC+ decisions—continues to shape political alignments.

2. Technology and Politics: New Tools of Power and Threat

2.1 Programming, Big Data, and Privacy

Massive data collection combined with advanced algorithms allows unprecedented precision in classifying and predicting individual and group behaviors. While useful for governance and commerce, these tools can be exploited for microtargeting and political surveillance, threatening civil liberties.

2.2 Political Targeting and Reputation Manipulation

  • Sentiment analysis, deepfakes, and personalized propaganda enable the distortion of public opinion and the discrediting of political opponents.

  • Investigations have documented digital platforms being weaponized for electoral interference and misinformation.

2.3 Programming as a Weapon: Cyberwarfare and Electoral Systems

Cyberattacks on energy infrastructure, transport systems, or electoral databases have become instruments of state or non-state conflict. Increased digital dependence has made these systems critical vulnerabilities.

3. Potential Wars and the Future of the International Order

3.1 Sources of Conflict

Competition over resources, energy access, and new regional alliances continue to be flashpoints.

3.2 War and the Energy Transition

Regional conflicts can disrupt the green transition by breaking supply chains for minerals and technologies, forcing nations to revert to fossil fuels for security reasons.

4. Demography and the “Population Reduction” Narrative — A Critical View

4.1 Demographic Reality

Many countries face declining birth rates and rapidly aging populations (e.g., South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe). This is a well-documented socio-economic trend with real policy consequences.

4.2 Evidence vs. Conspiracy Narratives

It is crucial to distinguish scientifically documented demographic decline from claims of a deliberate global depopulation agenda.

Evidence shows fertility decline is driven by economic, cultural, and social factors—such as women’s education, urbanization, and the cost of raising children—not by any coordinated global policy.

5. COVID-19 and Vaccines — A Balanced Review

5.1 What the Evidence Shows

COVID-19 vaccines significantly reduced severe illness and mortality. However, their effectiveness against mild or asymptomatic infection decreased over time and with new variants, which is scientifically expected.

5.2 Changing Policies (2024–2025)

Health authorities worldwide adjusted vaccine recommendations based on evolving data—focusing on high-risk groups and cost-benefit evaluations. These changes sparked political and media debates but reflect adaptive public health management, not total vaccine failure.

5.3 On the Claim “The Vaccine Didn’t Work”

Scientific consensus is clear: vaccines worked in reducing hospitalization and deaths, though not always preventing infection. The absolute claim that “the vaccine did not work” is misleading and not supported by evidence.

6. Modern Election Manipulation and Digital Interference

6.1 Common Tactics

  • Data-driven microtargeting of voters

  • Disinformation and coordinated bot networks

  • Deepfake videos and manipulated imagery

  • Hacking of voter databases or vote-counting software

6.2 Documented Cases

  • United States: Russian interference in 2016, the Cambridge Analytica scandal, and subsequent disinformation campaigns.

  • Europe: EU Parliament reports document coordinated influence operations linked to foreign interests.

  • Middle East: Cases of organized propaganda using digital networks and media manipulation to sway political narratives or elections.

7. Future Scenarios and Policy Recommendations

7.1 Summary of Possible Scenarios

  • Best-Case (Integrative): International cooperation on clean-energy supply chains, transparent algorithmic governance, and resilient election systems.

  • Worst-Case (Conflictual): Resource wars, widespread digital manipulation, and authoritarian control justified by “national security.”

7.2 Policy Directions

  • Global governance of algorithms and data privacy.

  • Mandatory transparency for political advertising and funding.

  • Hybrid election systems (paper-digital) with independent auditing.

  • Diversification of clean-energy sources to prevent geopolitical monopolies.

Conclusion

The future of global politics will be shaped by the intersection of energy, technology, and demography. As societies become increasingly digitalized and interdependent, the need for transparent, flexible, and cooperative policy frameworks is greater than ever. Combating misinformation—especially around sensitive health and election issues—will be essential for preserving democratic trust.

Selected References

  • IRENA, Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Energy Security (2024).

  • Reuters reports on fossil-fuel financing and OPEC+ dynamics (2024–2025).

  • CDC and peer-reviewed studies on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.

  • The New Yorker and demographic analyses on declining fertility.

  • PNAS, Brennan Center, and EU Parliament studies on digital targeting and electoral integrity.

  • Reuters coverage of U.S. vaccine policy updates (2025).