The European Union: Structure of Power, Fragility, and the Role of Modern Political Transformations
Introduction
The European Union (EU) is a unique political and economic entity that brings together 27 member states sharing a single internal market, institutional frameworks (the Commission, the European Council, the European Parliament, and the Court of Justice), and a set of common policies (trade, competition, and internal legislation).
Its strength lies not only in its economy but also in its ability to set regulatory and political standards that influence the global order. Yet, its fragility stems from national divergences, recurring internal crises, and tensions between national sovereignty and supranational governance.
1. What Is the European Union and How Are Its Core Institutions Structured?
Legal and Political Nature: The EU is founded on treaties (Treaty of Rome, Maastricht, and Lisbon) that define shared powers and the division of competences between member states and common institutions.
Key Institutions:
The European Commission proposes laws and implements policies.
The European Parliament legislates and exercises oversight.
The European Council and the Council of the EU represent member governments.
The Court of Justice of the EU ensures the uniform application of EU law.
This framework makes the EU more integrated than a typical international organization, while still requiring broad consensus to take major decisions.
2. Sources of the European Union’s Strength
A Unified Market and Economic Power: The EU possesses one of the largest economies in the world and acts as a single trading bloc, granting it strong bargaining power with global partners such as the United States and China.
Regulatory Power: The EU’s ability to set global standards—on data privacy (GDPR), environmental protection, and digital governance—extends its influence far beyond its borders.
Diplomatic and Normative Influence: Joint diplomatic and humanitarian policies give the EU significant collective weight in international affairs.
Security and Economic Cooperation: Financial stabilization mechanisms and coordinated responses to crises (e.g., pandemic recovery funds, energy solidarity mechanisms) reinforce intra-European cohesion.
Advanced Knowledge and Innovation Base: Strong performance in pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and engineering industries strengthens its competitive edge.
3. Structural Weaknesses of the European Union
Divergent National Interests and Shared Sovereignty: Decision-making often requires unanimity or complex qualified majorities, slowing down responses to urgent crises.
Technological Dependence: Europe lags behind the U.S. and China in high-tech innovation, limiting its digital sovereignty.
Energy Vulnerability: Heavy dependence on imported energy—exposed during the 2022–2024 energy crisis—remains a critical weakness.
Internal Divisions on Migration and Rule of Law: Disagreements over refugee policy and concerns about democratic backsliding in some states strain unity.
Economic and Social Inequality: Persistent disparities between northern and southern, western and eastern member states complicate economic integration.
4. Potential Scenarios for Disintegration
Academic literature outlines several scenarios—from partial retrenchment to complete dissolution. The most likely triggers for disintegration include:
Severe financial or debt crises;
Repeated sovereignty conflicts or nationalist policies;
Failure to manage migration or energy shocks;
The rise of populism and anti-integration movements within major member states.
While full disintegration remains unlikely, it is conceivable if simultaneous crises erode both public trust and elite consensus.
5. The United Kingdom’s Exit (Brexit): Causes, Process, and Lessons Learned
Process of Withdrawal
The 2016 Referendum: A majority voted to leave the EU, leading to activation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
Withdrawal Agreement Negotiations: Covered financial settlements, citizens’ rights, and the Irish border question.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA): Entered into force on January 1, 2021, establishing a tariff-free trade framework with provisions for dispute resolution and regulatory alignment.
The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol and Windsor Framework: Addressed trade frictions by maintaining open borders on the island of Ireland while protecting the integrity of the EU single market.
How the UK Managed to Leave
The withdrawal combined political legitimacy (via referendum), constitutional mechanisms (Article 50), and prolonged legal negotiations. The UK’s emphasis on sovereignty, immigration control, and legislative autonomy drove the separation despite significant economic and bureaucratic costs.
6. How Europe Faced Crises and Ongoing Challenges
(A) Energy and Security After the War in Ukraine
The EU diversified its energy sources, boosted LNG imports, increased storage capacity, and accelerated the green transition. However, it continues to face high energy costs and industrial competitiveness challenges.
(B) Geopolitical and Security Pressures
Support for Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and debates over European defense autonomy have reshaped EU strategic thinking, emphasizing resilience and deterrence within a NATO framework.
(C) Internal Economic and Political Challenges
Sluggish growth, inflation, and migration disputes persist, alongside debates on the rule of law and democratic standards in some member states.
7. Border and Customs Agreements Between the EU and the UK
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) defines the general trade relationship post-Brexit, maintaining tariff-free exchanges but introducing customs formalities and regulatory checks.
The Northern Ireland Protocol—later refined under the Windsor Framework (2023)—created a unique arrangement allowing goods to flow between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland without a “hard border,” while applying limited customs controls for goods entering from Great Britain. This model illustrates how complex sovereignty and market integrity can be balanced through pragmatic compromise.
8. The “New Political Generation” in Europe: Who Are They and How Do They Shape Policy?
Who Are They?
A “new political generation” refers to younger or technocratic leaders, the rise of green parties, and hybrid coalitions reflecting evolving social priorities. This includes leaders emphasizing digital transformation, sustainability, and pragmatic centrism.
Impact on Internal and External Policies
Domestic Policy: Emphasis on digital transformation, climate neutrality, and industrial competitiveness (e.g., semiconductors, batteries, AI). Increased focus on social inclusiveness and innovation ecosystems.
Foreign Policy: Advocacy for greater “strategic autonomy,” including diversified supply chains, stronger sanctions policy, and defense coordination. This generation promotes an EU capable of acting as a coherent global actor.
9. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
The European Union remains a major global actor with strong economic and regulatory capabilities but faces vulnerabilities from internal divisions, energy dependence, and technological competition. While disintegration is unlikely in the short term, sustained crises could challenge its cohesion.
Key Policy Recommendations
Invest in technological sovereignty (AI, chips, batteries).
Diversify energy imports and strengthen storage and emergency mechanisms.
Enforce rule of law and transparency to preserve institutional legitimacy.
Maintain flexible partnerships with neighboring countries using the Windsor/TCA frameworks as models for cooperation.
Selected References
European Commission (2024): Report on Competitiveness and the Future of Europe.
Oxford Research (2023): Scenarios for EU Cohesion and Disintegration.
European Council & UK Parliament: The Windsor Framework and Northern Ireland Protocol Explained.
IEA & European Energy Reports (2023–2024): EU Energy Crisis and Transition Measures.
EU Fundamental Rights Agency (2024): Rule of Law and Democratic Standards in Member States.